The intelligence behind the oddsWeekly · 2026-10-12 to 2026-10-18
Week 2026-W42: model vs market
1 finished matches with a forecast published before kickoff. Lower Brier score and log loss are better. oddsxi-goal-model p6-v5.
Matches1
Most likely outcome right1
1X2 Brier: model / market0.569 / 0.412
1X2 log loss: model / market0.956 / 0.739
Where the model did worst
| Match | League | Score | Model gave the result | Market gave the result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valladolid - Albacete | Segunda Division | 5-0 | 38.4% | 47.7% |
Research record
2 cases where the model disagreed with the market by 3 points or more: 0 came true; the market expected 0.7. One week says little; see the Performance Lab for the full record.
Football analysis, not betting advice.