How to read ODDSXI

1. A probability is a frequency, not a promise

“Home 60%” means that in many matches like this one the home team wins about six times in ten. It also loses or draws four times in ten. A single result never proves a probability right or wrong; only many results do.

2. Model and market

Each match shows the model's probabilities next to the market consensus, with the bookmaker margin removed, as seen when the forecast was published. The market is usually very well informed. A difference between the two is interesting to study, but it is not a tip: most differences come from what the model does not know, such as injuries.

3. Why the model thinks so

On a match page, “Why the model sees it this way” splits each team's expected goals into its parts: league scoring level, home advantage, attack and defence from goals, and from shots. Hover or tap the i next to any row for what it measures in that match. A Limited data badge means the model has few matches for a team, for example after promotion.

4. From expected goals to every market

The two expected-goals numbers give a probability for every scoreline, and from those come 1X2, total goals, handicaps and both teams to score. That is why all markets on a page agree with each other.

5. Check the record

Every forecast is published before kickoff and can never be changed. The Performance Lab scores all of them, the misses included, and the weekly summary shows the best and worst calls. Trust the numbers only as far as the record supports them.

6. What ODDSXI is not

ODDSXI is football analysis. It does not take bets, does not give betting advice and does not advertise bookmakers. See the methodology for the details and responsible gaming if betting is part of how you follow football.