The intelligence behind the oddsWeekly · 2026-10-05 to 2026-10-11
Week 2026-W41: model vs market
1 finished matches with a forecast published before kickoff. Lower Brier score and log loss are better. oddsxi-goal-model p6-v5.
Matches1
Most likely outcome right1
1X2 Brier: model / market0.329 / 0.373
1X2 log loss: model / market0.631 / 0.690
Where the model did best
| Match | League | Score | Model gave the result | Market gave the result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordoba - Tenerife | Segunda Division | 3-1 | 53.2% | 50.2% |
Research record
1 cases where the model disagreed with the market by 3 points or more: 1 came true; the market expected 0.5. One week says little; see the Performance Lab for the full record.
Football analysis, not betting advice.